Chrono24 data reveals which watch models have steadily risen in value since 2018 – even through the market correction

• Long-term analysis: 16 watch models have at least doubled in value since 2018 and continued to appreciate even after the end of the boom (2022) – not a single Rolex among them.
• Surprise winner: The Cartier Tank Vermeil leads the ranking at +299% – and could still be had for a three-figure sum in 2018.
• The strongest gains were not among the most expensive watches – but among models priced in the low- to mid-four-figure range in 2018.
• The broader market is also picking up notably: The ChronoPulse Index shows accelerating price growth over the past six months.

Karlsruhe (Germany), March 31, 2026 – Many consider luxury watches a stable store of value – but which models have actually proven themselves over a full market cycle? A comprehensive data analysis by Chrono24, the world's leading online marketplace for luxury watches, reveals: The biggest winners of the past eight years are neither the most expensive nor the most well-known watches.

For the study, Chrono24's data analysts evaluated the price development of several thousand watch models across two time periods: the past eight years (2018–2026) and the past four years (2022–2026). This methodology captures both the speculative pandemic-era boom and the subsequent correction – and specifically filters for models whose value not only grew over the long term but also continued to appreciate during the market environment of the last four years.

1. The top performers: Affordable classics over expensive icons

The ranking of strongest value gains contradicts a widely held assumption: Buyers looking for long-term value retention in 2018 did not need to spend five-figure sums. Quite the opposite – many of the best performers were available in the low- to mid-four-figure range at the time.

The Cartier Tank Vermeil (Ref. 1613) leads the ranking with a gain of 299% – at an entry price in the low three-figures in 2018. The Cartier Panthère in two-tone (Ref. 1057917) recorded +208%, the Panthère in yellow gold (Ref. 1070) +218%. Omega also places several models: The Speedmaster Ref. 3310.10 gained 119%, the Seamaster Aqua Terra Ref. 2517.30 rose by 83%.

Overall, the top 20 strongest value gains include ten Cartier references, five from Omega, and two from Jaeger-LeCoultre – but not a single Rolex.

2. The Rolex myth: A reality check

Rolex remains by far the best-known and most traded brand on the secondary market. Yet in the ranking of sustained value gains, the brand appears much further down. The Datejust 41 (Ref. 126334) – one of the best-selling Rolex references on Chrono24 – recorded a gain of 59% since 2018. Solid, but far from the triple-digit gains of the top group.

The reason: Rolex models were already comparatively highly valued in 2018 and were driven particularly hard by speculative demand during the pandemic years. After the boom ended, prices stabilized at a high level or softened slightly – leaving little room for triple-digit returns.

3. The pandemic stress test

The analysis uses the pandemic-era bubble as a natural stress test. Between 2020 and 2022, prices for many well-known models exploded – driven not by collectors but by speculators who treated watches like short-term financial products.

The subsequent correction hit the most hyped models particularly hard: The Patek Philippe Nautilus (Ref. 5712/1A) has lost around 45% since its 2022 peak, yet still trades at nearly three times its 2018 level. The Vacheron Constantin Overseas (Ref. 4500V) gave back more than half its peak value. The Hublot Big Bang (Ref. 301.SB.131.RX) did not even benefit from the boom and has lost a further 20% since 2022.

The 16 models that more than doubled across both time periods share one common trait: Their value growth was not driven by speculation but by organically growing demand that withstood the market correction.

4. Outlook

A look at the ChronoPulse market index shows a positive trend. While the index records a gain of 2.5% on a one-year basis, momentum has picked up notably in the second half: Over the past six months, the market has risen by 5.2%. The upward trend also continues to hold in the short term (+2.9% over 3 months, +1.2% over the past month), pointing to a return of broad buyer demand.

Balazs Ferenczi, Head of Brand Engagement at Chrono24: “This analysis dispels a widespread misconception: You don't need a five-figure investment in a Nautilus or Royal Oak to buy a watch that appreciates over time. Some of the best performers of the past eight years could be had in 2018 for a fraction of the cost. What these models have in common is not their price but their substance: iconic design that endures for decades and demand that is not dependent on waiting lists but on genuine collector value.”

Methodology:

This report is based on an analysis of transaction price developments for several thousand watch models on Chrono24's global online marketplace. Average transaction prices from February 2018 and February 2022 were compared with current transaction prices (February 2026). The ranking of strongest value gains exclusively includes models that recorded positive price development in both the 8-year period (2018–2026) and the 4-year period (2022–2026).